Bijal Shah |
In an age defined by disruption — geopolitical and economic instability, the rise of new technologies such as generative AI, and the increasing pace of business change — a new economy is taking shape. Speed, scale, and efficiency still matter greatly, just as in previous economic transformations. Only now, adaptability is emerging as the most critical factor of competitive advantage.
At Guild, we call this the Resilience Economy.
The Resilience Economy centers on a fundamental idea: the ability of people, communities, and institutions to withstand shocks, pivot in uncertainty, and build stability to drive shared growth. We see this as a macroeconomic movement that comes along once in a generation, one that will reshape labor markets, national competitiveness, and the future of growth itself.
So, what’s driving this shift? What does it mean for us as individuals, the industries we serve, and countries the world over? And what will be the resilient jobs that will build this new economy?
Why resilience matters now
In past eras of economic transformation, workforce innovation was the engine of growth. But today, that engine is misfiring in both directions. Millions of white-collar knowledge workers are at risk of being displaced in the next five to ten years by AI. At the same time, many companies lack blue-collar skilled workers — and simply cannot hire fast enough to compete. For every five skilled tradespeople retiring, only two are entering the field. But across every field or job type, nearly four in 10 core job skills will shift by 2030, according to the World Economic Forum. And the scale of disruption becomes even more profound when you factor in geopolitical uncertainty, aging populations, and climate change.
The 5 pillars of the Resilience Economy
Whereas the Gig Economy emerged as a stopgap — and in many ways, a symptom — of structural gaps in stable employment, the Resilience Economy offers a more sustainable alternative: a system built on new kinds of career mobility, future-forward capability-building, and proactive support of workers.
There are five pillars of the Resilience Economy, from our perspective:
1. Shared success over extraction: Employers that meet their employees’ needs for sustainable wages and support for both reskilling and upskilling will be best positioned to build a resilient workforce. In return, businesses gain continuity, agility, and long-term performance amid disruption.
2. People and technology grow in tandem: The more advanced intelligent machines become, the more vital human capabilities — like collaboration, mathematical thinking, and adaptability — are in discerning how these machines are used to solve real-world problems.
3. Purposeful learning cultures: Value will come not from fixed credentials but from the ability to rapidly gain and apply practical, real-world skills — especially as the pace of innovation renders many technical skills obsolete within just a few years.
4. Investment in ‘human+’ infrastructure: Coaching, career pathways, and education will become public goods and private necessities — delivered through a connected system of government policy, nonprofit partnerships, higher education innovation, and employer-backed funding and support.
5. Agency as a driver of resilience. Resilience will ultimately depend on whether employees feel empowered to act. Workers who see multiple pathways, understand trade-offs, and can exercise choice in reskilling and mobility are more likely to adapt and thrive than those who don’t. For HR leaders, that means designing talent strategies in a way that expands agency — ensuring workers can move across functions, enter new roles, and remain resilient through change.
In sum, the Resilience Economy demands a new balance of power, access, and responsibility, which requires business and HR leaders to rethink how they invest in people and design systems, as well as distribute opportunity.
What employees need to be resilient
Many workers, for their part, are responding to these seismic shifts. Deloitte recently found that 74% of digital workers believe they need to upskill every six months just to keep pace, a striking recognition of the need to learn continuously, adapt quickly, exercise agency in career decisions, and lead with confidence through constant, accelerated change.
We see this trend in our own data. Over the past year, Guild has witnessed a 900% increase in AI program enrollments, with much of that demand coming from frontline and underserved populations.
But awareness of the problem is not the same as access to solutions. Frontline and lower-wage workers, rural communities, and non-degree holders often lack the resources required to reskill or upskill, and make career transitions into new sectors. Without targeted support, these workers may get left behind — and the consequences extend beyond individuals. Corporate innovation could slow, talent pools shrink, and national productivity erode at the very moment resilience is needed most.
What employers need to be resilient
For employers, workforce resilience won’t come from deeper learning-content libraries. It will depend on building systems that meet employees where they are and create conditions for growth. That means providing employees access to the skills required to remain relevant as the market changes. That will require as much reskilling into new roles as upskilling within existing ones. It also means support that too often sits at the margins: coaching, clear career pathways, and leadership engagement at both the HR and executive levels.
Guild data on this are clear. Employees who complete employer-sponsored education programs turn over at 77% lower rates than peers who do not participate, and 76% remain with their employer for at least a year after completing a program. In a labor market where adaptability is the defining competitive edge, companies that build resilience into their workforce strategies today will be the ones best positioned to weather disruption — and to thrive in whatever economy follows.
What resilience looks like in practice
Resilience has become one of those words that almost everyone uses — for everything from cyber infrastructure to personal wellness — until it risks sounding abstract. But in the workforce, resilience is showing up in concrete ways, shaping how companies absorb shocks, adapt to disruption, and turn volatility into advantage.
Climate shock in supply chains
A major manufacturing firm with operations in the Gulf Coast was forced to halt production during an extreme weather event. Its teams in the Midwest, trained across functions, were able to absorb the work and minimize delays. The success factor: agility built into their organizational and operational structure.
Platform disruption in financial services
A digital-only challenger bank launched a feature that leapfrogged incumbents. A legacy firm was able to mobilize product and support teams across departments to release a counter-feature within weeks, thanks to a cross-skilled, mobile workforce and real-time market listening.
AI leapfrogging in retail
A national retailer introduced AI-driven inventory forecasting. But without in-house fluency in machine learning or upskilled floor teams, rollout stalled. A competitor that had invested in reskilling programs for its logistics workforce saw a 30% productivity boost in the same period.
In each case, resilience was not employed as a temporary-crisis management tool but a competitive differentiator.
Where do we go from here?
Realizing the full potential of the Resilience Economy will require bold action from HR leaders. While government, education, and civil society all have a role to play, CHROs and L&D leaders are uniquely positioned to lead by example. That means:
Structuring roles to enable movement within and across the organization — so that skilling, lateral mobility, and long-term growth can take root.
Embedding learning and mobility into the core of workforce strategy (not just as a benefit);
Investing in coaching, pathways, and reskilling and mobility programs that enable employees to move into new roles and across functions — not only upward advancement;
Measuring what matters: capability growth, role readiness, and internal mobility (not just engagement or completion);
Designing systems that make learning accessible to more employees, including those in frontline and desk-less roles (as demographic shifts make it increasingly important to engage these populations); and
Championing resilience as a strategic advantage that drives innovation, retention, and long-term performance.
History tells us that what’s needed now is resilience. But to thrive in the new economy that’s forming, resilience must transcend operational and organizational strategy to become the defining attribute of our entire economic system.
